With the former President now in some sort of quasi-exile, Carlson is looking to fill the vacuum, capture disciples, and start his next chapter.
Since former President Trump escaped Washington, D.C. the morning of January 20th, 2021 there has been an ominous vacuum of what is next for the Republican Party. Having been severed from his 88 million Twitter followers, Trump has struggled to connect with his base since - publishing tweet-like press releases from "The Office of the Former President."
What is apparent is that the GOP has entered a period of internal struggle and change - typical of any losing party, but made more so upon loss of an incumbent President (see GOP since George H.W. Bush's loss). Trump is still wandering around sending out random press releases praising himself and denouncing Biden, but what he is not doing is making it clear what his political intentions are going forward.
Follow the Cash
It is easy to see why Trump has not announced one way or another: his ego is bruised, he doesn't want to give up the spotlight, but he doesn't want to suffer another defeat...and oh yeah, he doesn't want to give up the cash!
Trump has always been interested in wealth, it's all he ever brags about (here, here, and here). His recent skirmish with the Republican National Committee claiming they cease and desist using his name or likeness in any fundraising attempts shows that he is attempting to control the cash flow. Trump will not leave if there is money to be had, especially when he has to do little to gain it while his own businesses continue to struggle and impact him personally. Others have pieced this together as well, and the positioning to replace Trump as head of the party has begun.
Enter Tucker
Tucker Carlson is credited with aiding Trump's meteoric rise since his 2015 announcement of entering the GOP Presidential Primary. Tucker gave Trump air time and even helped shape his talking points as he broadcast daily into the homes of likely voters. There has been speculation that Tucker will make a primary challenge. Since Biden's election win in 2020, the conservative cable 'news' landscape has changed quickly, with the rise in popularity of One America News Network (OANN) and Newsmax (both further or far-right outlets).
Fox and Tucker are doubling down on a right-ward shift and Tucker has been increasingly ramping up his rhetoric to attract - or recapture - many viewers who gravitated towards OANN and Newsmax post-election in order to find validation and comfort in denouncing the 2020 election as fraudulent. Whether this posturing is for political purposes or perhaps an exit from Fox News to another broadcaster is not yet evident.
Why Take the Risk?
The question of why Tucker would consider taking the risk of leaving his high-paying, relatively self-directed position as Fox News' most-watched host for an onslaught in a Republican Primary, let alone potential general election likely has more to do with succession.
The succession is not that of Tucker or of Trump, but of Fox News' patriarch, Rupert Murdoch. At 90 Rupert Murdoch has had a stranglehold on Fox's direction since he founded the predecessor (Newscorp) in 1980. As no one can escape the inevitable, upon Rupert's death control of Fox News will fall - as part of the greater Fox Corporation - to his four children (Lachlan, James, Elisabeth, and Prudence).
Lachlan is currently CEO of Fox Corporation and has worked closely with his father and steered Fox News to the right. James stepped down from Newscorp in 2020 and has publicly criticized the media for propagating lies of climate change denial and for the current state of politics. Their sister Elisabeth has warned of the dangers of “profit without purpose”. Meanwhile, their elder half-sister Prudence, has always kept a lower profile.
This could mean that the trust which holds a 39% interest of Fox Corporation is to be passed to the children could mean big changes for Fox News, and ultimately Tucker Carlson.
Tucker is a master of controlling the narrative, of getting in front of a story. He has managed to say arguably horrendous things against institutions that the GOP once held dear and gotten away with it it would seem.
So Tucker is testing the waters, seeing if he can capture Trump's disciples and turn them into Tuckerists for his own benefit. It would not be surprising to see Tucker start to make more noise in the coming months, especially if there is a lack of follow-through from Trump on relaunching a political bid. Tucker may be behaving more combative not for the sake of principle, but for the sake of saving face.
Whether he sees an opportunity to shape America as a politician or to simply maintain his media presence on any network (Fox, OANN, Newsmax), it is clear that Tucker is no different than Trump - will say anything to be in the spotlight. American media, let alone politics, does not need Tucker or Trump.
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