In roughly one year from now Ontario will be heading to the polls, and despite current
trends, Westside is here to drop a prediction on the outcome.
The countdown is on, and I am prepared to make a sweeping declaration. Doug Ford will not win a majority government in the 2022 election. In fact, I am willing to go as far and say that we may see a Liberal & NDP coalition minority.
The Reasoning
You may be thinking how I can boldly make that statement when recent polls showed Mr. Ford and the Conservatives in a comfortable majority. The reason is the handling of the vaccine rollout in Ontario has been a disaster full stop. Combined with facing a deadly third wave of Covid fueled by Variants of Concern (VOC’s), many Ontarians are fed up and are starting to place the blame squarely on Mr. Ford and friends.
Polls in Canada have been fairly reliable, a quick look on 338 shows just how accurate polling has been. However, this next provincial election I truly believe we are going to see record turnout of young voters who overwhelmingly favour the NDP. With young people being used as one of Mr. Ford’s favourite targets of irresponsibility, and the reason we are in this predicament. Young Ontarians are tired, angry and can’t wait to exact revenge for being left in the cold, where it matters at the polls. Younger individuals today are becoming more educated of the role and responsibilities that governments play in their daily lives than years past. They are looking for answers to the questions about how they are being cared for, how they are going to afford their homes. Who is their while they are losing their jobs, and for some their businesses. And most important who is protecting them as they forced to work essential jobs with little guarantee of vaccines and paid sick days. The populist politics that Mr. Ford panders, is not working for them, they want answers, they are demanding results. Slogans aren’t enough as they watch more friends and family fill the ICU’s.
Freefalling and Strategy
Let’s not forget that prior to the pandemic Doug Ford was the least popular premier in Canada. His popularity was below 30%, and headed for disaster. In fact, as sad as it is, the only reason he has a fighting chance right now is because of the pandemic. But with failed leadership, poor decisions, last minute lockdowns and restrictions, people are breaking. It is also telling that in recent polling 48% of Liberals named the NDP as their second choice. Much like we saw in the last Federal election we may see more strategic voting patterns emerge. Meaning where there are neck and neck races Liberals will flip to the NDP to ensure they win the seat over the Conservatives. Looking at what the Liberals and NDP are promoting and will eventually run-on similar platforms this makes the most sense. Yes, your parents may never vote NDP, thanks Bob Rae, but many people under 50 will, and they are about to make their voice heard.
So that’s it you heard it hear first the Ontario Conservatives will not win a majority in 2022. Out of 124 seats in Ontario legislature here is my prediction, Conservatives 53-58 seats, NDP 36 – 41 seats, Liberals 30 – 35 seats, Green 0 – 2 seats. In that scenario the Liberals and NDP would form a majority coalition to get above the required 62 seat majority. As more polling comes out in the months ahead I will have a more detailed breakdown of where I think the Conservatives are the most vulnerable.
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