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Van Smoot
Jan 17, 2021

Power of the Pardon

Will President Trump go on a pardoning spree during his last days in office? Will he pardon himself pre-emptively?


At the end of any Presidency, there is the expectation that a President will wield their constitutionally ingrained power of pardoning individuals seen as having been treated unfairly. The Presidential power is believed to have been intended to be used as a force for good (e.g. President Washington's pardoning of individuals charged with treason during the Whiskey Rebellion, or President Lincoln's pardoning of most of the Dakota Indians that participated in the Great Sioux Uprising of 1862, or President Carter's pardoning of over 200,000 Vietnam War draft dodgers).


Although President Trump has, at the time of writing, only pardoned or granted clemency to a total of 94 individuals, there is a sickening trend and the potential for more questionable pardons in the twilight days of his presidency.


Under Article II, sec.2, the president was given the “power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment.”


Satisfying his Sycophants

A breakdown of his pardons indicates that nearly 90% of those pardoned to date have inside access and some association with the President. It is also reported that President Trump has little regard for guidance from the Office of The Pardon Attorney. The Washington Post reported that White House advisers, led by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, had taken “more direct control over pardons and commutations, with President Trump aiming to limit the role of the Justice Department in the clemency process.” The Post again reported that “rather than consult with the Justice Department’s pardon attorney for recommendations, Trump has routinely subverted the process and largely favored political allies and those who are well-connected for clemency.”


Roger Stone was granted a full pardon in December 2020 for his involvement and eventual guilt and sentence stemming from the Mueller Investigation. Such 'honor' was also granted upon Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn (even if the latter recanted upon seeing the opportunity to obtain a pardon from President Trump).


So there appears to be a clear path to obtaining a pardon from President Trump and it is to have helped him or be of benefit to him in some way shape or form.


Those within the inner circle remaining and rumored to be seeking clemency include Rudy Giuliani (Trump's personal attorney), Steve Bannon (former campaign and White House strategist, recently reconciling with Trump). Giuliani and Bannon are both facing potential criminal charges.


Giuliani and two of his business associates, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, for their efforts to persuade Ukraine to initiate investigations into then-presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son Hunter, attempts to oust the U.S. ambassador to the country, and for potential campaign finance fraud. Giuliani, however, has recently fallen out of favor with the President as it is reported that Trump no longer wishes to pay Rudy's legal fees. The Sunken Parlour's theory is that it is a trade, Guiliani will continue to represent Trump during his 2nd Senatorial trial, and Giuliani will receive a pre-emptive pardon. No cash changes hands, but it is a clear quid-pro-quo should that be the case.


Bannon was indicted over the summer as part of an alleged border-wall-fundraising scheme, in which prosecutors accused him and his associates of having "orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors." Bannon's motives are much more obvious relative to Giuliani's but what he has to offer President Trump - apart from the usual, false claims that the election was stolen from Trump - is unclear. Bannon was the architect of then candidate Trump's 2016 primary win and perhaps has new, albeit wild, strategies to entice the President for life post-office. Bannon understood and leveraged the power of the Trump-base and he may have fresh ideas as to how to do so going forward.


Cheering his Mob

If the insurrection of January 6, 2021 showed us anything it is the power of belief within the Trump-base. There was a disingenuous post on the social media platform Parler claiming to be the official page of the "WH Office of Pardon Attorney" stating Trump was"strongly considering" pardoning those involved in the insurrection of the Capitol Building on January 6, 2021. This claim has turned out to be false but does raise the dilemma that it is within the President's power to do so.


It is scary to consider, however, that a President could in fact pardon those who acted treasonously within his interests. It would rest upon Congress to then rebuke such action and a President through subsequent impeachment and removal. Given the current divisiveness and outright blind devotion by many members of Congress that is questionable - terrifyingly enough.


A Fawning Family

The most steadfast of loyalists within Trump's orbit are those who share his name - his children. Ivanka, Donald Jr., and Eric have all shown their fielty has no limits. Donald Jr. and Ivanka have both been sought for questioning surrounding mismanagement of government funds related to Trump's 2016 Inauguration. It is no secret how important loyalty and - as a result, rather than due to - family are to him.


Recalling that Presidential clemency applies only to federal crimes may seek to help Ivanka in what could be potentially dangerous related to tax filings uncovered by The New York Times. The Times suggests that Ivanka received nearly $750,000 inappropriately. "Ms. Trump had been an executive officer of the Trump companies that received profits from and paid the consulting fees for both projects — meaning she appears to have been treated as a consultant on the same hotel deals that she helped manage as part of her job at her father's business." For Ivanka, ensuring that her reputation is not tarnished is, let alone potential criminal charges, a key to her future as rumors circulate that she has plans to run for office in the future.


Patriarchal Protection

It is said that President Trump has discussed pardoning himself, pre-emptively. Although the constitution does not explicitly indicate a President cannot pardon themselves, the long-standing principle that no individual can be their own judge holds in the American judicial system. Therefore, even if Trump were to attempt to pardon himself, it would likely be challenged at the Supreme Court level, and it is the opinion of The Sunken Parlour that would fail calamitously.


That being said, Trump's aides should be indicating to him that accepting a pardon - even from himself - means the recipient is admitting guilt. Therefore, should a self-pardon be struck down, Trump has then admitted guilt and put himself in danger.


Regardless, President Trump appears to be most at risk of criminal offenses at the state level, where the Attorney General for the Southern District of New York is said to be preparing charges related to bank and tax fraud - giving Trump no protection via a self-pardon.


Predictions

To summarize, The Sunken Parlour is expecting pardons for the following within President Trump's last days in office, in no particular order:

No expectation that Trump pardons any of the rioters/insurrectionists. Why? Although making Trump historic in terms of Presidency, that history was in the form of causing him to be the only President to be impeached twice.

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